Hello everyone, it's been a while since I've been here.
These model forecasts are so tough to judge. The GFS actually had it moving off the SE coast for one run the other day, now it takes it into the midwest. I thought the ETA was out to lunch when it moved it SW across Florida, and it ended up doing that. Hard to predict movement when it is slow and erratic. Having said all that, the link below is from the NWS on the "improvements" (hard to see them yet lol) in the GFS.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2491.htm

Looking at a water vapor loop starting yesterday, it looks like the trough that moved off the east coast was followed by a building ridge that suppressed the storm track. It appears that effect shouldn't persist much longer.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8wv/g8wvjava.html