| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:16 PM |
|
Re: AL MS LA
|
Quote:Quote:
Big question is when does she start to turn. NHC says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
Yep, I agree - although, Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin is much more than 100 NM from N.O. last time I checked. It's a 4 hour drive, at any rate. People making comparisons to Frederick concern me - I remember Frederick (even though I was 7) - we got a LOT of rain here (Valparaiso, north of FWB).
I'm going off the NHC's guidance which puts the storm basically into Pascagoula - which nails Mobile, puts Pensacola under the gun (again) in terms of severe surge trouble and leaves Ft. Walton/Destin in a zone where they get significant surge trouble but probably avoid anything worse than sustained 50kt winds.
Of course if it goes further west then shift all that. Inland the rain problems will be ugly - we've had a lot of rain in this area this spring and summer, and as a result I'd expect quite a bit of inland flooding as the storm rains itself out.