Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Aug 26 2005 11:02 PM
Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch

Quote:

Don't be critical of other posters simply because you don't care for what they say. That doesn't hack it here. Weather Forecasting is a long way from being a full-up science, so lets put an end to the Monday Morning quarterbacking.
ED




Yeah, sorry I snapped at Ralph. A couple things he said just ticked me off.

------

Anyway, looking at the tracks and intensity I'm not liking Katrina one bit.

NHC intensity chart {source}
Code:

INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.6N 83.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL



115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous, especially considering the intensity forcasting problems when storms get that strong. Once they hit Cat 4, forcast intensities often don't predict intensification or weakening very well. The storm intensity becomes driven more by eyewall cycles than any real direct change in strength.

--RC



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