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If I understand the gist of what you're saying, Lake Ponchatrain is to the N of the city and you believe simply the force of the wind would drive the water from the lake S into the city, over the dikes?
That would be just one of many scenarios that could cause breaches in the flood control system in NO. It is not designed to handle a storm like this. Heck, it can't handle a lot of rainfall as it is. Also, don't concentrate on the line. On that path NO is well within the major danger zone. With a forecast like that, I would suspect that NO has no choice but a massive evacuation.
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Re: Update