scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 27 2005 06:29 AM
Re: are the Models out to lunch?

Im posting this late as I have to get up early. Anyways this is very brief....Katrina should be at least 135mph by morning. I expected originally for this to happen saturday night but she is 1 day ahead of schedule due to her getting onshore florida much earlier.
Anyways she has gone more sw then the models showed as I predicted earlier today and last night. Now thing is I said she will eventually turn NNW tomorrow with a bend to the NE later Saturday night into Sunday. You know that was speculation and against the models. I do see how she can still do this. Only way she can is for her to slow down due to a weak trough that slid into the NE gulf right now. Might push her more ssw for few hours. Infact last hour she wobbled that way. I would think for her to come back to Florida she will have to be pushed more Sw and slow down near 85-86w then make the move N today. This will give time for the strong high to weaken and have the trough entering the ohio valley to dig down into the SE US this weekend.
If this doesnt happen then I expect she will be on the western edge of the model consensus and go towards TX or just into Mexico by midweek.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center