| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 08:35 AM |
Re: are the Models out to lunch?
|
Quote:
Isn't that just amazing? I thought it looked like it was really deepening and the eyewall area looking better on sat. Even with that dry air, and not being able to completely close the eye wall, and with only a 3deg differential (could that be from the weak NW side?) it is still doing it's darndest to intensify.
OK so with 91kt in the NW quad, and 950mb, don't you expect to see Cat 3 winds in the SE quad? It seems likely. And if so, then do you think a Cat 3 status even with the open eyewall? A pressure of 950mb would seem to put it squarely in that category.
Well... I was right ti appears. I woke up and Katrina is basically still going ... NOWHERE fast!
Anyway if the pressure is down to 950 I suspect winds will be at least 120 at the 4pm CST advs.
EDIT!!! Pressure is down to 945!!!
EDIT: Just refresh the WV loop. It's DEFINATELY got a Cat 3 signature on that loop. Looks to me like the southward component has disappeared overnight even though the NHC does not say it has as of 2am CT.
EDIT: 5am ET Advisory! Katrina upgraded to Cat 3 with 115 mph winds, now moving DUE WEST at 6mph. Landfall forecast: Direct hit on New Orleans pretty much - officially just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River, crossing Ponchatrain(sp?) with 120 knot (138 MPH) winds. Doomsday scenario coming together for the Greater N.O. area. Have they started evac yet?
Of note in my opinion: the forecast and model runs change significantly from 10am yesterday to 4pm and then again from 4pm to 10pm last night, Central Time. Overnight it appears that the models changed very little, and the official forecast at 4am CT is quite similar to the forecast at 10pm, in actuality. Frightening if you live near N.O.