Looking at Ophelia this morning I'm not liking what the models are doing to its track. It would be better just to slam it into FL before it has a chance to strengthen. Instead GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET are having it do a cyclonic loop. This matches with the NHC forcast track, sending it back towards FL in about 5 days as a Hurricane.

She has taken on the classic Comma shape so often seen on strong TS's and weak hurricanes. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Dvorak numbers saw her stronger. I'd guess she might be a 3 now, but I'm no expert

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GFDL still isn't handling the storm well. The model has been very consistant about taking her into FL and across into the gulf. Ophelia just doesn't seem to want to do that. Additionally it seems that GFDL isn't even strengthening Ophelia when she deserves to be strengthened (the last run doesn't bring her to TS strength until she's in the Gulf...yet Ophelia has reached it). It did the same thing with Katrina - failed to develop the storm correctly. I'm wondering if the GFDL just doesn't do well with Bahamas-area systems? It's done outstanding with almost everything else.

CMC is the nicest forcast. It takes Ophelia out to sea in Nate's wake. Unfortunately I don't see this one coming to pass anymore than the GFDL solution.

--RC

P.S. - now we have 50 AM over at NHC. Someone needs to realize that there aren't 50 hours in either the first half or the last half of a day