doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 08 2005 02:33 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty

We should really watch the pressure to see if there is true intensification...much of the wind speed could be influenced by a deepening gradient between the high and the cyclone without actual lowering of the pressure..by all stretches at 989mb, it could already be at 74kt but it isn't because it is struggling to build convection in relatively dry air.
I think the pulling of the NE quardrant away by the easterlies is very significant not only in the loss of energy, but could signal the actualization of the logic of the Accuweather forecast from yesterday which suggested that the llc would split off and move west..
that can still happen...much of the model guidance I can see for the loop was based on more northward movement by now which has not happened...
As I see it this vortex was caused by an"eddy' in the atmosphere, and that eddy is still stuck..the longer it does not move the more chance for a westward solution in my opinion...



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