It's a battle of two features: a sharp upper-level torugh sliding through the mid Atlantic into the southeast and the upper-low spiraling in from the southwest. As that upper-low passed south of Nate, it didn't stop the eastward motion of the storm but kept it moving slower than it otherwise would have. Here, it might help keep Ophelia from heading out to sea, as it might be want to do with just the trough passing by. Nevertheless, it's headed towards the northeast now and should continue to do so for another day or so before slowing, turning, and then heading back toward the west-northwest. There is a ridge there to the west of the trough that should build in, but it's not one of those ridges that will keep it headed west or slightly south of west. Thus, my landfall region centers on the coast between Brunswick and Savannah, with everyone from St. Augustine to New England needing to watch it. Ultimately, after it moves inland, it should continue to curve more towards the northwest and north with time, potentially heading into the NE late in the week. My forecast is slower than the NHC 5p advisory by about 12hr, mainly due to a slower turn toward the west, but nearly the same intensity at landfall. Landfall point is about the same, just not from the angle the NHC shows (I'd have it further south and curving up to meet that landfall point myself).