BillD
(User)
Mon Sep 19 2005 03:18 AM
Re: Hope there are no surprises, but...

I think that once the local mets read Stewart's 11:00PM discussion on Rita that they might not be so low key.

THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY
EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS
REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

This is one that could surprise us all.

Bill



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