Scrappy:

The reason the NHC is so conservative is that they have more serious obligations in their authoritative role. They can't afford to be inconsistent from hour to hour. Predictions on this board over the past two days have ranged from the mid-TX coast to the eastern half of LA. The NHC has to go with the data with which they are presented and be as scientific in their prognosis as possible. They can't afford to stare at IR loops and envision sharp right turns when the science doesn't bare it out.

And there is still a good chance that their track as it stands will bear out well. Unless the data generating the forecasts change radically, they owe it to the millions of people relying on the information to be conservative and not to overly alarm or relieve large area based on wobbles and eyeballing.

Michael Cash
(formerly of Lakeview)