typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 11:17 PM
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor

what is more amazing than the actual 1938 event its self is the fact that civility returned in such droves in the decades that followed, so that by the turn of this century population and construction was/is many times over in greater magnitude than the 1938.

long island is a particularly primed location for a tempest with a bad attitude; moreover, new york city could suffer a fate as dire as new orleans should a cat 3 hurricane be moving rapidly up the coast and then quasi-hook nw into the bite waters that nexus ne new jersey with the western end of long island. that area would effectively funnel the storm surges impinging on both coastlines into that "v", which would then spill (probably) a 20+ foot storm surge into downtown manhatten and surrounding areas. the entire infrastructure of the city would be toast. think of that...high voltage lines, telecommunications, subways, not to mention contaminants, all under 20 feet of sea water while 120mph wind gusts are funneling between the dangerously rocking sky-scrapers...probably shedding huge amounts of glass and peripheral construction components in a rain of utter chaos and terror. and, it could actually take more lives for shear process of population densities. anything going over the arm of the island would simply be awesome in this day and age...
low probability event. it's hard to get a cat 3 that far north unless it's moving fast. really fast movers don't have quite the surge, usually. but yeah, there is a lot of real estate to wreck up thataway, but strong hurricanes approaching western new england are pretty rare, because you need a really high latitude ridge and a trough coming along at just the right time to draw it due north across the cool coastal waters fast enough for it to still be strong. -HF



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