that sucker is coming up pretty quick. good thing it doesn't have but a day or less over water. stan is going to move slowly enough as it goes inland and once inland that rainfall amounts ought to be pretty high in places... especially the country between oaxaca and puebla. on the coast veracruz looks to take a pretty solid hit, but the worst conditions will be around the village of alvarado if the forecast track verifies. stan ought to decouple from its ridging and a lot of its mid level vorticity by wednesday, so there will be plenty of support for another system to make a development run in the gulf later in the week.
HF 0641z04october