looks like a the eastern side of the broad surface low is trying to tighten up in the midst of the northern bahamas near some deep convective bursts. that may be the system finally starting to focus. not sure yet, just eyeballing it. i've been agitating for something of the like for more than a week, so maybe i'm reading too much into it.
there's more of all this mess working over into the gulf. think the loopy low is overdone in that the upper low there would take time to transition.. if there is a low it'll be stuck next to it and weak. not sold on that ticket. more likely that another low pressure area will form in the leavings of stan, where there is some ridging aloft and plentiful convergence. stan itself is about halfway across mexico, on to sample the pacific.
don't disregard the area near puerto rico, either. there is some low level turning and a good bit of ridging aloft.
globals are all over the place, but mostly in agreement that we'll have one tropical system go up the east coast, and then another or two meandering near around the gulf/western atlantic. very active span we're in, that looks like it will spill over into next week.
of course maybe ralph is right and its just a bunch of rain. right.
HF 0024z05october