| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 07:13 PM |
|
Re: Wilma Continued
|
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html
take a look at the ridge building in from texas to south carolina. seems to be blocking out that low that was in l.a. a few days ago and started moving eastward. the southern end of that trough that was supposed to sweep across is no more.
and with the pirouettes that wilma decided to execute today, the models are probably well off from each other due to the inconsistant measurements taken by us. i think someone stated that the latest vortex message said wildly different speeds depending on if you were on the west or east side of the mean boundary layer -- well, that "appears" to be like that probably because the pirouettes were in motion and you would have probably seen (if you were able to measure both sides of the boundary layer in real-time) two wind speeds which were moving in opposite directions at all times going up and down as wilma did her piroueettes.
Quote:
On second thought...
"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...HRCN WILMA...
VRY POOR MDL CONSISTENCY WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLNS SEEN IN THE 12Z
GLOBAL MDL SUITE. THE OVERALL TREND OF A SLOWER MOVING HRCN WILMA
SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN SHRT TERM TRENDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE THE POINT AT WHICH THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS OVR THE E CTRL U.S. PULL THE STORM POLEWARD. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND WWD IN THE 12Z UKMET/GFS AND NAM SOLNS...BUT THESE MDLS
DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT
AND A LITTLE FASTER. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON WILMA."
...Still, something doesn't seem right about this 12z variant... I just think it's ultimately going to come down to an as yet determine meridianal depth of the trough centered on 80+W, when that finally occurs.. so I agree with them that much. As far as the GFDL interacting with the landmass of NE Coast of Yucatan - this is the first run that has had this behavior and has virtually no support from previous guidance suites - at least, not that far inland..