| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 04:03 PM |
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
I believe that Wilma is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the ERC.
I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm,
we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane.
My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection.
I believe that Wilma will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging
directly to her west.
These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models.
Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad.
Hi,
Actually, the depth of warm water in her area is still deep enough to sufficiently maintain the prior intensity.. It's more likely she's entered an Eyewall Replacement Cycle and this appears to be the primary cause for weakening trend... I wouldn't be surprised either if she's a cat-4 by the 11pm advisory, perhaps even 8... Whether she returns to cat 5 there after will probably be a race between subtle break down in her current awesome u/a structure vs the rate of contraction of her new eyewall - currently developing and plainly discernable on both microw and vis imagery.
As to stationary thinking, she is actually not really stationary. Her last advisory had her moving wnw at 7mph - granted, not in any hurry.
I'm not really sure what you mean by 'suffer from inertia'.