zacker20
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Oct 20 2005 12:49 AM
Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP

Quote:

What do you think the NW motion would do to the NHC track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?




It all depends on the timing of the trough. That will determine whether the track shifts northward or southward. Wilma will have to pick up her forward speed and continue moving northwest in order for the trough to bring her back to the northeast later. If she clips the eastern tip of the Yucatan pennisula and still is moving northwest, then she will be coming in more north on the FL pennisula, because of the angle she will be at when she is picked up by the trough. This is becomng less and less likely though, because Wilma is still moving at a very slow forward speed and is expected slowdown in the next 24 hours, which means the trough could completely miss her and she will go directly into the Yucatan, or she will be nudged directly east towards extreme southern FL and the keys.



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