danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 19 2005 08:57 PM
Confusion

I've noticed quite a few comments about Wilma's wobbling. Dr Steve Lyon's at TWC had a closeup graphic of this earlier. Wilma's eye is indeed wobbling/ rotating around a central point. One of the FL NWS Offices mentioned two eyes, with the smaller eye rotating around the larger one. Concentric eyewalls ( different diameters ) were mention in the 19Z Vortex message.
This could be throwing some fluctuation into the models. I haven't looked at the center fixes so I'm guessing.
NOAA9, the Gulfstream is currently conducting pre-storm enviroment sampling, and Air Force Recon is scheduled for takeoff within the next 10 minutes.
Center fix is scheduled for 05Z or 1AM EDT.

00Z GFS Model run tonight should contain all of the data from the Gulfstream Flight. The model is normally finished it's run out to 120 hours/ 5 days, at 0430Z or 12:30AM EDT. Right now we have to resort to using the 18Z models.

An earlier post asked about the model times. The time is basically the "Start" of the data run.
Updates may be found at:
http://www.ncep.noaa.gov
Under " Current Status ".



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