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What do you think the NW motion would do to the NHC track? Would they keep the current track or would it be moved at landfall point N or S?
It all depends on the timing of the trough. That will determine whether the track shifts northward or southward. Wilma will have to pick up her forward speed and continue moving northwest in order for the trough to bring her back to the northeast later. If she clips the eastern tip of the Yucatan pennisula and still is moving northwest, then she will be coming in more north on the FL pennisula, because of the angle she will be at when she is picked up by the trough. This is becomng less and less likely though, because Wilma is still moving at a very slow forward speed and is expected slowdown in the next 24 hours, which means the trough could completely miss her and she will go directly into the Yucatan, or she will be nudged directly east towards extreme southern FL and the keys.
Nice reasoning, might happen. You seem to have latched on to the 12Z GFDL idea - Don't see that likely. Took a peek at the water vapor and the ULL looks robust & is tracking due east - not too far north. In addition, the westerlies are already approaching the NW GOM and will soon be aligned along the northern Gulf Coast. The high over the western GOM is rapidly breaking down and the subtropical ridge to the east to starting to exert its influence on Wilma - moving it at a little faster clip to the NW now. I see Wilma riding the edge of the Atlantic Ridge and then being influenced by the westerlies as she gains latitude in the GOM - turning her NE. Unfortunately, I think there is little doubt of an ultimate landfall between Tampa and Key West.
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Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP