Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 20 2005 02:07 AM
Re: CO State Univ

Here's my own personal opinion on what happened with Max Mayfield's PC this afternoon:

People saw the GFDL doing some weird things and latched onto that model ONLY, pretty much disregarding the enselmble models that he alluded to BEFORE he showed the GFDL model. We must all remember what he said: there is HIGH UNCERTAINTY in this forecast path and EVERYONE in Florida needs to pay attention.
I don't see, at this point anyway, that the storm has showed any sign of slowing down or stalling out...as of now. We must pay attention to ALL of the models; the GFDL may have been a fluke OR it could be valid. We have to be patient and wait.
Is there a chance that the ULL in the middle of the country could stall out, allowing Wilma to continue on her W/NW course? Yes. Is there a chance that the same ULL could still dive further south, allowing it to pick up Wilma? Yes. Everything hinges on what the ULL does and I am not, at this point, ready to buy into a non-event for ANY part of Florida, as Daniel and many others have stated.
Frankly, it's still moving as it was supposed to be doing. I will be interested in taking a look at what the WV loops look like right now to see where that ULL is and if it's still speeding along like it was.
And I 2nd Daniel's request: please stop quoting, requoting and then answering. It takes a lot of time to read everything and it takes up too much bandwidth.
Thanks,
Colleen :-)



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