Call me unexperienced but after reviewing the lastest model tracks and water vapor loops over the US I see wilma landfalling near Tampa and exiting neat St Augustine, closer to the LBAR. I know I was told earlier the the LBAR is a statistical model and is not reliable. My question is why are they still using it. The steering currents from the north are not looking like they are dipping south as predicted. I know there are other things I do not understand, but sometimes things are not as complicated as some may think. What is the possibility that I am right?