Remember one thing: they are counting on the cold front digging pretty deep into the GOM causing that ENE motion. I'm not seeing it dig that far south yet, so this could all be for naught.
The weather tends to do whatever it wants...no matter what the models say...and with this system, I think we have to keep a closer eye on what the satellites are showing us than what the models are showing us.
We are getting close to end of the Yucatan Peninsula trip. Then we can start to get a good grip on what to expect after that...I hope.
Now I have to go find my coffee which I lost somewhere between the computer and the kitchen.