Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:48 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Yes, there will be no point in trying to narrow down the FL landfall at all, until 11am Sun or 5pm Sun (NHC disc).

There is an extremely good reason why NHC has not made any changes to the FL forecast track over all these days; there was no reason to do so. They know how to pick a winner (track) at the beginning and then they stick with that until there is absolutely some specific reason to change it. They always have clear logical reasoning to back up their course changes. Can you imagine what people would think if they changed their forecast track with every advisory? Oh, at 5am it's going here, at 11am 20 miles to the east, at 5pm 30 miles to the west...just because the models fluctuate; people would be so confused they wouldn't know what to think, and no one would have any faith in what they were predicting.

I couldn't believe it when yesterday aft Steve Gregory announced a specific point of landfall in FL and an intensity level at landfall. Being a met he should know better than to cave into playing that game.

It might be a little different if we were talking about a FL landfall where a very small portion of the coastline was going to get obliterated like what is happening in Cozumel and Cancun (I am so glad NHC nailed that prediction in time for Mex to take action to evac as many as possible). What is going to happen in FL is likely just the opposite; a very very large area getting affected by TS force winds. It will not be so critical to know the exact location of lanfall.



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