storm has been drifting steadily northward and if the trend continues it will be moving back over water around early evening. the inner core of the hurricane hasn't become disorganized due to the center having gone inland only a few miles, so the likelihood of it weakening significantly isn't there. the models indicating a central pressure in the 960s at feet wet probably have it on the mark. based on the somewhat improved outflow to the west today and strong jet gradient to the north i'd say the hurricane will be in very good condition for regeneration on sunday. don't be surprised if it reintensifies back to cat 3, as per the official. i see the potential for it to be stronger as well... would be surprised if it hits florida in the 945-955mb range. the jet winds appear to be streaking over the lower outflow levels, so once the core of the hurricane starts getting affected by those it will really accelerate and likely stabilize or begin to weaken. almost no model support for it to phase now, except for a few left outliers. some still bring it close enough to the northeast to cause some rainfall and coastal wind impact, but nothing on the order of some of the scary intense storm direct impacts shown on earlier runs.
going to keep the bullseye on fort myers out of stubbornness though i'm not convinced that the threat of a direct hit to naples is less likely. due to rapid movement the windfield asymmetery noted earlier by others will cause the strongest winds south of the impact point. if that's mostly driving into the glades then not such a big deal (would be much weaker on the southeast florida coast)... but right into marco, naples, or fort myers and that's a recipe for significant wind damage. surge potential is high on that section of coast, but even if the storm comes in near high tide we'll be near a last quarter phase moon, and that's the astronomical parameter for less tidal amplitude.
25L has a 18-hr run to the hispaniola coast to intensify to a tropical storm... the island will probably knock it down a good bit and it may not recover. by monday it will be close enough to wilma to begin arcing sharply northward... models still show a little window for intensification there too. satellite appearance is good right now, so it has a modest chance at t.s. in the short term. it won't get strong enough to be more than a rain event.
globals showing the kind of pattern that can generate more caribbean action later next week. a persistent, broad surface low should be hanging east of nicaragua, while another wave should come drifting in towards the islands under the persistent ridging north of the eastern caribbean.
HF 1735z22october