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FXUS62 KTBW 221810
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA AND THE END OF SUMMER ARE NOW ON THE WAY...
...ROUGH WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN HAVE THE SWEATERS
READY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...WELL HERE WE GO. WILMA WAS SPINNING
SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN VERY NEAR CANCUN...
WEAKENED BUT STILL FORMIDABLE AS NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY THE STORM WAS
UNABLE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO CAMPECHE PROVINCE BUT RATHER HAS
REMAINED NEAR THE COAST...AND LOWER TERRAIN...OF QUINTANA-ROO.

SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND LIKELY
REGAIN CAT 3 STATUS FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND BEGINS THE ACCELERATION PROCESS.
THE ACCELERATION WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE
WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.

THERE IS GOOD AND BAD NEWS HERE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING FOR A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE BAD NEWS IS THE
EXACT LANDFALL POINT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHICH WOULD MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN A VERY IMPORTANT HAZARD: STORM SURGE.

ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...FOR AREAS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD TWO
HAZARD THREATS ARE REDUCED: STORM SURGE AND TORNADOES. IN FACT...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TIDES WELL BELOW NORMAL IN
THESE AREAS. ALSO...THE EVENT WILL LAST NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS...
PROBABLY 6 HOURS GIVEN THE RAPID ACCELERATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
SUNCOAST...THOUGH QUICK...WILL BE QUITE WELCOME.

NOW THE BAD NEWS. FIRST...WILMA WILL LINK WITH A STRONG
AUTUMN COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER...WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AND
BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES UP TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION. SO...FOR ALL
AREAS...EXPECT MINOR WIND DAMAGE RANGING FROM LOOSE ITEMS BLOWN
AROUND AND TWIGS/LEAVES OFF TREES TO PERHAPS MODERATE (OR MORE)
DAMAGE LEVELS CLOSER TO THE STORM AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SHORELINES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. DETAILS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN A
LIKELY HURRICANE STATEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HOISTED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTLINE.

OTHER POTENTIALLY BAD NEWS IS THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...
WHICH IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS HAS BEEN VERY ACCURATE WITH
LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RUN
NOW BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA TO THE CHARLOTTE/SARASOTA COUNTY
LINE...ALL THE WHILE RACING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THOUGH FAR TOO
SOON TO BUY OFF ON A SINGLE MODEL RUN...THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS
FAILED YESTERDAY TO PICK UP ON THE PLAIN MOMENTUM OF THE STORM
TO CARRY IT ALONG THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN SHORELINE...ALONG WITH THE
GENERAL "LOOK" ON WATER VAPOR WHICH SHOWS THE MIDWESTERN U.S.
TROUGH ELONGATING TOWARD AN EAST-WEST POSITION NOW AND A CHANNEL THAT
SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO
THIS SOLUTION. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND WORSE YET A TRUE "SURGE" OF WATER INTO LEE COUNTY
WOULD BE REALIZED. NOTE THAT THE SURGE WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
A HIGHER HURRICANE CATEGORY GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE STORM AND
EXPANSION OF HIGH SEAS...COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION.

I hope that clarifies things for some people. Good News, Bad news it up to you to decide. Excellent discussion though, by real weather people.