Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:48 PM
latest from SPC

Here is the latest from SPC on the tornado threat for today and tonight... basically it appears that the greatest threat will be in south Florida, with the alignment of the front in central FL not ideal for tornado formation, since storms will quickly move from the warm side to the cool side of the front, rather than along the front. As Wilma approaches, though, the tornado threat closer to the front will also increase:

...S FL...
LEAD CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA SHOULD REACH THE WRN KEYS
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SW FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. COINCIDENT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL SHEAR STRENGTH/ HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE...COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR
70S/...WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD E ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NEWD.

...CNTRL FL...
DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVER
CNTRL FL MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. BOTH LOW AND
DEEP SHEAR ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MODEST UNTIL THIS EVENING
...WHEN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION. IN ADDITION...
BOUNDARY ORIENTATION IS SUCH THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM LIKELY WILL
MOVE FROM WARM TO COOL SIDE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY NON-SEVERE TODAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PWS /2+ INCHES/ MAY
YIELD A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WILMA. INTERACTIONS CONDUCIVE TO
LOW LVL STORM ROTATION MAY ALSO OCCUR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY AND
WILMA/S OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS.



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