typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:01 AM
Re: Shear

Quote:

What do you think the time of landfall will be? The local mets say around 8am, but that sounds a little late to me




..Take her reco fix translation speed (15mph) and devide it into the distance she is from landfall (or whatever location it is you are interested in) on the heading she's currently on... They are saying NE (which I'm in argument over.... guess I'll have to just suck it up but DanielW recently said he'd help us out by dong a plot analysis soon...) Anyway, the 8pm intermediate advisory had her on 15mph at 365km..."SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA." ....~225miles from the southwest coast of the Penisula... NOTE That provided it stays on this heading and speed, which is not a certainty. If anything, she "should" gain latitude and accelerate, but we'll leave that aside and just say that 225/15 is about 15hours ...I suspect with acceleration this will be around 12z monday morning, however.. So I agree with them...



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