typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:46 PM
Re: And the beat goes on dum dum dum..Super Storm NorEaster forming...

Quote:

Accuweather has been predicting this for the past week, but I wanted to wait for my NWS folks to confirm anything before I started to take notice.

As soon as I saw this..

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bgm&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

I knew the established meteorolgists were now on board.

Here is the scenario according to Accuweather...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-weather-headlines.asp

To further track the storm I'm going with the following page...

http://wxrisk.com/meteopage.html

A couple more links of interest...

http://www.foxphiladelphia.com/weather/

http://www.almanac.com/forum/list.php?9




Yes...the possibilities abound.... the models have been flip-flopping with the successful marriage of the two systems near the Mid-Atlantic for days (over a week at this point) and HankFrank and I have been hammering this out in our discussions off and on during the course. Accuweather does a good job - I've just notice they have a tempo shift to 'chance taking' as of late. Not sure what the deal with that is, but they certainly do make some bold assertions/predictions recently - and quite honestly, it has paid off concerning Katrina and Rita...

Anyway, there's nothing really new about this - though it is nice to see some else on her finally bringing it up - THANKS. Anyway, right now the models (especially the GFS) actually whip Wilma into the graveyard as a distinguishable dying entity, while steadily deepening the extra-trapical Nor'easter... In other words, not really phasing the two vorticity fields as effectively as say ....the Perfect Storm did... Let's face it; that's essentially what is going on here, which the Perfect Storm scenario serves as more than a loose analogy for..

I'm currently glued to the atmospheric behavior on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html (as I just mentioned in another post) because the contruct is certainly there; one that hints that the global based models may be having difficulty resolving the union between a pure barotropic and a pure baroclinic system - should that be the case, and are thus opting to do what it is they are doing.. I've been hearing a lot of information from offices that sounds like "...Wilma will transition into ...this or that"; but the strictest interpretation of the 12z guidance is not really like that... They really squirt her and her remains out ahead of the extra-trapical baroclinicity - too far gone to be really suggestive that the Nor'easter in question is really Wilma incarnate..

Yeah yeah...it's complex.



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