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Key West NWS, Afternoon AFD has mention of the "possibility" of tropical weather in the area for next weekend. This is a must read for The Florida Keys residents and Southern Florida. Based on the wording and use of heavy words in the Discussion~danielw FXUS62 KEYW 131914 AFDEYW FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 215 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005...edited~danielw .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY... BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 20N. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE GRENADINES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE EARLIEST IT COULD REACH THE KEYS` LONGITUDE WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION. DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE SAFE BET IS TO STICK WITH AN EXTENDED FORECAST BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY. (bold emphasis added by danielw) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDEYW&version=1&max=51 |