Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Nov 14 2005 05:31 AM
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go

Lets not get too excited about any South Florida possibilities yet. TD 27 has formed about 100 miles west of St. Vincent and it is currently moving to the west at 10mph. The Tropical Depression is expected to reach Tropical Storm strength in the next 24 to 36 hours, but moderate westerly shear to the immediate north should inhibit any rapid development for the next couple of days.

The wind shear is expected to decrease as the storm moves to the west or west northwest - but the westward movement should be rather slow. Once the system gets west of 70W, a more rapid intensification could take place...but the cyclone has to survive the next 48 hours first.

If the system moves slightly south of west, intensification could be a little quicker. If the system takes more of a jog to the northwest in the 24 to 48 hour timeframe, the westerly shear could tear it apart. Any threat to South Florida and the Keys is still at least 6 - perhaps 7 - days off. At the moment that threat is minimal, but just keep an eye on this one during the week.
ED



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