HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Nov 16 2005 03:30 PM
recon timetable

i'm not sure what nhc is doing for recon today, but if they canceled it and didn't just redirect it to the sw caribbean feature i'm not so sure they'll be reconning anything. 93L is already moving (it seems to have already developed and is responding to the deep layer flow), and will be onshore nicaragua some time tonight.
it looks sort of like this: 93L is essentially a depression. it's broad and in it's formative stages, and has a t-rating of 1.0... so nhc is interpreting this to mean that it isn't a depression yet. i don't find it inconceivable that it has the usual depression conditons associated with it... with the strong low level flow to the north the winds should easily be reaching 25-30kt, with a central pressure near 1006-1007mb. but, no cdo, so no depression for now. maybe the sfc obs aren't showing as much as satellite is.
td 27's runaway center is on the fringe of its envelope, probably going to be absorbed. it actually looks better this morning than it did overnight, but is unlikely to stage a comeback sitting on the edge of a developing system. if it can remain coherent and over water, the feature to the south may hand off territorial rights once it gets onshore.. because the upper pattern over former 27 is now very good.
near the abc islands 27's old mid-level low sort of dragged back, and has left a wind-shift line at the surface and some associated vorticity. the shear down there isn't oppressive, so not impossible that another low won't form over there. don't think it terribly likely, though.
nothing new on the other model-envisioned subtropical type features out in the atlantic. it'll be a few days before they start to pop up, in whatever form they're going to take.
HF 1530z16november



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