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Ok, well the circulation is very well-defined and there is convection, and winds have been at or close to TS force for at least a day, so the key to whether it is a TD right now is, is there banding/org convection around the center? Looking at most recent 85ghz scans, yes, at 6am there is a band from about 90deg around the N and W down to aboug 225deg, at 8am similar, but still has not wrapped around, although a well-defined center, and it will need to tighten up. This is because the overall circ is partially over land, right? So with the level of org, and windspeeds, as soon as it moves out into the Carib a little more, and the convection wraps around, we'll have a TD, but since winds may be higher, I assume we'll jump right to Gamma? Possibly NHC TPC will wait until the results of the recon? |