danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Nov 21 2005 12:32 AM
95L and GOM Low

Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC, gave 95L a bit more than an Honorable Mention around 8 EST this morning. He even went so far as to say it would probably be named "DELTA".

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 (excerpt~danielw)

...FARTHER E...A STRENGTHENING 1003 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N43W MOVING SLOWLY NE.
A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE LOW WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT ALREADY PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 44W-50W NEAR AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL ATLC...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/210012.shtml?

Most of the NWS eyes are on the front moving through the MS valley and the GOM. Models have forecast a surface Low to develop in the GOM during the next 24hours. While Non-Tropical in nature (baroclinic), the low(s), are "forecast to deepen rapidly after passing Florida", and possibly create a snarl for Thanksgiving Travelers.
HPC mentioned Snow as far south as the Southern Appalachians.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html



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