there's a lot more convection flaring out there tonight than i'd expected. thing is, there are multiple vortices within the larger gyre. probably nothing doing until one decides to annex its neighbors' space. right now the surface low near 31/47 appears to have the best definition. the one southwest has better up environment. appears to be a weaker flare/trough to the east.
good grief. i didn't think we could fit another in, but it's awful frisky tonight.
THE MAIN ACTION IS FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 25W-65W WITH A MEAN
AXIS FROM A DEVELOPING 997 MB LOW NEAR 30N46W SW TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS WEEK AS THE
LOW CUTS OFF BENEATH A LARGE HIGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES.
yep, they're already watching it.