December 19th Update
All remains quiet in the Atlantic basin, as we'd expect for the month of December. Upper-level lows continue to try to cut off and build down to the surface in the subtropical north Atlantic but are having less and less success as time goes by, the climate shifts more toward winter, and the pattern that favored their development gradually breaks down. It's likely that we're done for the rest of the tropical season, but we hope that you'll stick around for the winter season here at the CFHC. The 2006 prediction thread is still open in the Storm Forum and Clark's ongoing Season-in-Review (with July and August posted just today) will be released through the rest of this month and into early January. If not, we hope you have a Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays!
December 10 Update
Epsilon was quickly stripped down to nothing on December 7-8, with yesterday marking the first day since the second week of November that there wasn't a tropical cyclone or an imminent one in the basin. We've had some long-lived systems for this late in the year... to go that long with just three storms.
Anyhow, this thread can carry us to the end of the year, provided that we don't have more formations. Models are currently showing another deep layer low in the eastern Atlantic, with some evidence of core warming. The signature doesn't last as long as those of Delta or Epsilon did, nor does it traverse quite as warm of waters. Still, the possibility of a flash-in-the-pan system is still present. GFS keeps the pattern producing cut-off storms out there right through the forecast period, showing another later in the month. So, there is a chance we'll need a new thread... but until then we can just coast.
Winter is creeping in, and the Christmas season is close as well. Enjoy the long awaited repreive, everyone... assuming it holds up.
December 4 Update
Epsilon is still a hurricane, and a solid category 1 at that. Two days ago the forecast was for the storm to be coming apart and losing tropical characteristics right now, but it has relentlessly continued maintaining definition. Epsilon has a large eye and solid convective ring--it's the best-looking hurricane we've seen since Beta. Go read Avila's 10 A.M.. discussion if you want a laugh, because the NHC guys don't get it either.
Epsilon should begin to curve south and weaken dramatically over the next couple of days, and there is no reason why this forecast shouldn't verify. We ought to be done with the system around Tuesday, but the remnant low could be wandering around and bothering no one.
December 2 Update
Epsilon has become a very rare December Hurricane, still not affecting land areas.
See Clark's blog below for a season wrap-up discussion. The 2005 season affected many of us, and will be remembered, along with 2004, as a situation we would never want to see a repeat of.
November 30 Update
Today is the final day of the Official 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which has broken so many records I've nearly lost count.
29 tracked systems, 26 named storms, 13 Hurricanes, 7 Major Hurricanes, and 3 category 5 hurricanes. one of which was the most destructive storm on record to make landfall in the United States (Katrina).
Records were set for the lowest pressure recorded in the Atlantic, most storms in July, most storms overall, first-ever use of the Greek alphabet for naming storms, and most category 5 hurricanes in a season. There are more too I'm forgetting.
Eplison, however, is nearly a hurricane -- another record -- and moving away from land.
The 26th Named storm of the season has formed in the Central Atlantic. This year is unreal, and I'd rather it be over now.
However it is not, and this tropical storm is called Epsilon, the 5th Greek named storm of the year.
It is no threat to land areas, and is borderline tropical now.
We'll be tracking Epsilon, hopefully the last storm of 2005.
Epsilon (from Skeetobite)
Click for full size:
Animated Model Graphic (Skeetobite)
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TS Epsilon - Static Image
CIMSS TS Epsilon Page