Tue Nov 29 2005 02:16 PM
Re: delta in the canaries

Hi.... You understand your -NAO... We have been vying for that during the past 10 days, pulsing in and out of representation in the verification - poorly modeled along the way - but never the less, having that be the case... In any event, the -NAO usually has a corresponding negative height anomaly situated anywhere from the Azores to the current area of rotation, in which Epsilon is apparently embedded..

I just wanted to state... It is utterly extraordinary that we are seeing a counter part negative anomaly, normally associated with an NAO, and also one that is climatologically a cold core latitudinally underpinning feature, be expressing as a hybrid generator..

It must purely be a function of very strong positive SST anomalies and exceptional +Tripole state. By the way, the SSTs around Greenland/above 50N in the Atlantic Basin are approaching terrifying +anomalies as they are nearing 5C in some areas where we normally see subduction water chimneys from very cold arctic SST interfacing with intermediate GS waters... That is absolutely....incredible the magnitude of that departure. ....Additionally, it makes one wonder how warm the northern Atlantic can become before some of those conveyor breakdown theories may be tested!

understand nao? i know what it is, but can't do much more than read it. it does all sorts of strange things. as for epsilon and delta, i thought that hybrids out there usually formed during these blocking events, when the nao- low was displaced further south than normal. i dunno.. in a hyper active year where the atlantic is trying to cough up as much energy to the higher latitudes as possible, it just makes sense that the atmospheric circulation is primed to send surges of energy (or tropical cyclones, if it pleases) up every so often. noted that surge into the gulf during the last few days, and the recent trend for cold air surges into the east to be blunted or advance slowly against the tendency for air masses near the atlantic to stay or return quickly if repulsed. winter is going to try to break that down... i've got a hunch that a progressive march of polar air masses is going to start hammering away at the east this winter, trying to equalize the anomalous warmth in the atlantic. -HF

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