HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Dec 07 2005 08:36 AM
Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing?

eh, i don't see why not. zeta, sure.
epsilon really really ought to die soon. the profile of the storm has deteriorated just a little through the day, so that long prognosticated plunge to nothingness ought to start any time. clark thinks maybe it'll just eek by, but i'm going to bet that it gets fed into that great chipper shredder in the sky also known as the jet stream and decides to call it quits.
the post-ep (or maybe ep will still be there) feature evolves in more or less the same way as its predecessors, but further east, closer to the canaries. i'm thinking that will favor a less tropical system all the way around. it does persist and show relative warming aloft in the gfs, so some of the familiar evidence is there. going to bet against this one, too, though... until the models show the feature and let it linger in the region for a few more runs.
there was a little rumbling about caribbean interest earlier. right now the models aren't showing a whole lot. just some upper ridging and a trades surge that weakens and leaves a small concentration of disturbed weather north of panama early next week.
not sold on anything being in the basin in about three days, and nothing beyond that. the season will probably end when ep bites it, though i'll back out on that statement if that east atlantic feature persists/improves in the model runs.
HF 0836z07december

well, 09Z advisory still has it as a hurricane. avila says the end is in sight. i agree, but does epsilon? -HF



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