Just walked in the door and just like I've done all season, made a beeline for the computer. The 10pm is out early.

Avila acknowledges Zeta is looking better, but once again the forecast is sticking with 55kts for "continuity." The latest quikscat pass missed both times, so this is reasonable. But in general I think battle fatigue must have set in. You can see on sat imagery that the shear has finally backed off, and as a result Zeta has strengthened enough to make some headway against what is left of the trough, which had been pretty stationary all day, and convection is occuring around the center. Some of the best-formed bands of convection in Zeta's lifetime (now wrapped half-way 'round) show both on sat and on the microwave pass from a couple hours ago.

Zeta is still moving between an area of strong shear to the south and less shear to the northwest. It doesn't appear that there will be any more n'ly component to the direction anytime soon (in fact if Zeta moves any further south they're going to have to readjust the floater image), so Zeta may not be able to take full advantage of the lower shear there, but regardless it seems there is another reason that Zeta will intensify:

Reviewing IR images from the last 24 hours it is clear the recent trough intensified Zeta. The discussion mentions this, but in the context of the oncoming trough, not the one that just passed:

...A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION AIDING INTENSIFICATION...

I'd be interested in hearing the basics of how this occurs (besides the fact that shear often does help develop convection). Does it have to be at a certain height or comparative direction? Because we saw today that the WSWly shear demolished the convection that had been built up by the shear from the trough earlier. What is unique about the shear assoc with a trough?