000
WTNT45 KNHC 061408
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

ZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS
MORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM
NEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME
30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS
FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE
TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE
BEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS
ALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FORECASTER STEWART [Yeah Stewart!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.0N 49.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 23.4N 51.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 54.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 56.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 58.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

only looks like we will have 4-6 months of quite..... June 1st, 2006 not that far off.......