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... it looks like a high pressure area is sitting over GA which would cause Ernesto to be pushed back to west before reaching the FL Keys. Am I to assume that this high is forecast to move east thus clearly the way for Ernesto to move N into S FL? Can someone confirm that as well?
This 12-hr RUC fcst sfc fcst vt: 28/12z hints at a circulation on the SE coast of Cuba, and also shows the SFC ridge extending only to the Bahamas with southerly flow off the E coast of FL. A similar pattern is shown for 700mb vt:28/12z It's just some model output, though. Ernesto will continue to have a mind of its own. FL is far from being out of the woods yet -- NHC has as good a handle on this as anyone right now.
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Re: First shot