cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 01 2006 01:46 AM
Re: next up...

I would be satisfied with an upgrade of Ernesto to 75 mph hurricane at landfall. It does appear that Ernesto did improve structure within the last hour or so before landfall, and right at landfall. This would also make two times that Ernie pulled an 11th - as in south Florida, where some, who had heard that he was a glorified afternoon shower, were surprised as his pressure dropped at landfall, giving some spots some pretty gusty winds.

This time-sensitive JSL enhanced loop of "Ernesto" clearly shows a very organized blow-up of deep convection in the last couple of frames, with a dead-on attempt to really concentrate about the eye/eyewall. - For help seeing this, click on the "Trop Pts" (tropical forecast points) and alternate overlay with the "Radar" overlay.

Also, a location not really right in the eye recorded a minimum pressure of 986mb, or 1mb below the barometric pressure level often associated with a marginal cat 1 hurricane. And especially given that this reading was quite likely not in the exact center at time of lowest barometric pressure, it is arguably equally likely that Ernesto's actual min. surface pressure was even less than this.



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