MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon May 07 2007 11:10 AM
Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical?

May 8th, 10:15AM update
The NHC has released a special statement on the hybrid (warm/cold core) low area, and the NRL is now tracking the system as 90L.

May 8, 9:30 AM Update
The not-tropcal low pressure off the southeastern US coastline is looking a bit more subtropical this morning, with scattered (oddly so) convection closer to the center. So it will likely wind up being a judgment call at the Hurricane Center to determine if this system gets named or not. There is a recon flight scheduled for tomorrow to check it out if it maintains this.

What's going against this low being subtropical is the dry air surrounding the low, and the fact that it has been weakening (or transitioning). It should continue to weaken as it approaches the mainland. Much of the windspeed decrease is more due to the high pressure moving away and the pressure gradient relaxing, however.

It should be slowly weakening as it moves west and south, as it does so the winds will continue to cause issues along the shore and for the fire outbreaks in Florida and Georgia.



Original Article
A few people have been talking about it, but there is a Nor'easter (Cold core, frontal, extratropical low pressure) system that has developed off the coast of North Carolina, combined with an adjacent High Pressure, is causing rather gusty winds across the southeast and Florida.

This system is currently projected to move south and eventually near north Florida near Jacksonville on Wednesday. Some models project it moving back northeast and disappate it , and some have it going into Florida.
As this is not a true tropical system, you won't see charts or graphs, but since it's fairly close to Hurricane season it is worth a mention. People along the coast will feel the winds from the system and the gradient with the high pressure even more.

There is a small chance it may pick up tropical or subtropical characteristics as it goes southward. One of the things that is keeping that from happening is the fact that there is a stationary front along with the storm, although it has become more cut off since this morning. This system isn't likely to do all that much and if it were to get into Florida it would probably fall apart very quickly, but it is still something to watch even as an non-tropical system as things could change.



More to come as needed.

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Coastal Storm (90L) Event Related Links
(New Season/Storm: Images may be slow to update or old initially.)

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
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NRL Info on 90L

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Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

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