danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon May 07 2007 09:34 PM
Re: gale 90L

Excerpt from the afternoon Marine Wx Discussion for the NW Atlantic.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT MON 7 MAY 2007 (edited~danielw)

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE MAJOR STORM NEAR THE SE CORNER OF THE NT2 WTRS IS BCMG VERT STACKED AND BASED ON DVLPMT OF CNVTN ARND W SIDE AND CONFERRING WITH HPC AGREE ON HAVING THIS LOW MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH THRU 36 HR AS IT MOVS SW THEN DRFTS W JUST S OF 31N TOWARD GLF STRM...RATHER THAN SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IN GFS AND OTHER MDLS.
WILL KEEP INTSTY 6-8 MB DEEPER THAN GFS THRU TUE AND PERHAPS SVRL MB THRFTR AND MAY REQUIRE SLGT UPWARD ADJ OF GFS WNDS. GFS AND OTHER MDLS EXCP 00Z UKMET DO NOT INITIALIZE LOW DEEP ENUF.
BASICALLY GOING WITH GFS TRACK WHICH AGREES WELL WITH ECMWF/UKMET 00Z RUNS...TAKING LOW INTO N FL THU WITH SLOW FILLING AFT TUE BUT NOT AS FAST FILLING AS IN GFS...MORE LIKE ECMWF STRENGTH BY THU. THERE IT STALLS AND WKNS THRU SAT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WNM/MIMATN



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