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GFDL has been run on the system, and takes it to high-end TS/ virtually minimal hurricane strength before making landfall and weakening. GFDL is often a bit generous with new systems, so I would not put all my eggs in that basket, but it does suggest that at least some potential for an intensifying storm does exist. Really, this *is* already a subtropical storm by all reasonable academic measures. Whether NHC names it or not, is another story. Perhaps they only add it post-season. My own opinion is naming now does a greater public service. Regardless of what it's called or not called, current effects are very similar to an offshore TS coming onshore, but perhaps not quite as wet, and without as much risk of serious damage. |