that's probably what is out there right now, like mr. deathsky says. my prediction about the nhc being first dismissive and then speculative about its possible transition for a while is right so far. they're obviously interested in it, and it fits enough of the subtropical cyclone criteria (in fact it's a poster child for why the term exists) that everybody is wondering why they don't go ahead and name it. the nhc response is the most predictable thing when we have a really good hybrid system like this... it fits the criteria listed in all but the most semantically exclusive way, but that just happens to be the one they use. i do wonder why the nhc bothers with the term subtropical cyclone since they apply it so narrowly that it's irrelevant.
the subtropical system does have deeper convection than earlier today, but not by much. it doesn't seem to be quite there yet, for the nhc to give in. if it blew some really deep convection the argument would suddenly become that it's a tropical storm, since recon would then of course find a more pronounced warm core aloft. what happens probably also depends somewhat on what forecaster is in charge. i bet ya that beven is all twitchy over this thing, for instance. unlike most of the subtropical candidates we fuss over, this one is actually going to thump the coast some... and the nhc will have to listen to a lot more people than usual wonder aloud why they mince words over these things every time.
anyhow, we might have us a subtropical storm tomorrow or we might not. if we don't there's a good chance it will end up being subtropical storm one, in a post-analysis. either way it's essentially like a dry, slow moving tropical storm buffeting the coast. better news out of this thing is that it's starting to push showers on shore, which should help some with the fires. might end up being a boon. the wind, on the other hand, could make it not worth the benefit.
HF 0258z09may