it's trying... it really is...
09/0545 UTC 30.9N 78.8W ST3.0/3.0 90L

up to 3.0 on the Dvorak classification, and the convection is starting to get colder compared to last night, and it is starting to creep into the center just a hair more. but it still got that 30 miles of clear space around the center that remain devoid of storms.

The storm does still appear to be tightening up, I was hoping to peek at CIMSS's ADT product, but it's not tracking the storm at the moment, at least not that i could find.

But... I'd give it even odds at this point in the next 24 hours. maybe I'm too optimistic, but it's doing better than I expected. let's see if the trend holds up.