dem05
(User)
Fri May 11 2007 05:46 PM
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone?

This may sound a bit "Point-Counterpoint"...and yes...I'm representing Florida well here as a rain wishcaster right now, here. But I'll put my money with the NOGAPS at this point.

A.) It was the first model to really pick up on something "Andrea" and try to do something with it.
B.) In general, it has done a better job of putting Andrea's remenants where they are right now.

From this point, even though it has weakened, the system looks more tropical than any model, forecaster, or any of us may have expected. The evolution of this system and it's surrounding environment has been somewhat complicated. I yield to the fact that the models may see something that is not actually there. NHC made reference in a one of their advisory discussion packages that Andrea would decouple between the surface and upper levels. It has done that and the models (i.e. GFS, UKMET, CMC, etc.) may be handling the Mid-Upper level components of the system moreso in each of their runs. The additional reason why I like the NOGAPS model at this point is that that it does pull Andrea's remenants (Or possible Andrea Reborn) to the NE for a short time as the relatively small trough and front comming down interacts with it. After that, it then recognizes that the mid lattitude environment is progressively evolving at a fast pace. The high passes behind the trough/front and moves to the north of "Old Andrea"...Blocking the Andrea remenants/redeveloped system in. From this point, she moves south into the Bahamas then westward across Florida (Say around West Palm with an exit in SWFL) ...progressively weakening from the Bahamas onward.

NOGAPS 850mb 12Z Run: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

NOGAPS Surface 12Z (Watch the ridge pass/block to the north): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Yeah...rain wishcasting...but the possibilty of this actually happening cannot be discredited or discounted either.



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