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The circulation of the former STS Andrea does indeed look impressive this morning as the low heads off to the east northeast at 15mph - and the low is moving through a sliver of light shear ahead of the frontal system off to the northwest. But the former Andrea has also moved quite a distance away from the strip of 26C SSTs of the Gulf Stream and is rapidly approaching SSTs of 20-22C - and those temps should motivate full extra-tropical transition into a small gale center. The center may remain south of the front today, but the SSTs will certainly make it difficult for the low to maintain subtropical characteristics - 21C is mighty cool even for sub-tropical stuff, although this system certainly has had some tenacity. Although examples are somewhat scarce, it would seem reasonable to me for extratropical transition to occur at lower latitudes during the pre-season timeframe. Cheers, ED |