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EAST... CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND THE SLOW UKMET WITH PROGRESSION OF E COAST VORTEX D5-6. THE MODEL TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME ENERGY FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO ERN SYSTEM...USING IT TO SPIN UP DEEP SFC CYCLONE OFFSHORE. TIMING OF THIS INFUSION IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE IT DEPENDS ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES EARLY IN THE PD. IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY EARLY...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MAIN BAND OF WLYS...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION WOULD BE MAXIMIZED...ALLOWING ENTIRE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN SEABOARD. When posting an exerpt, please be sure to mention your source. |