| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu May 17 2007 03:23 AM |
Re:Future bahamas event
|
Quote:
From tonight's 8:05pm NHC TWD:
Quote:
NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.
Can one of the mets please educate me? Is the NHC saying it's still showing in the models and has not yet developed, or are they saying that it IS developing in real time outside of the models?
That low has been in all of the models except for the GFS and is developing on schedule. It's not a tropical entity, however. The GFS developed something further south and west in Caribbean which isn't panning out. I wouldn't really trust the GFS right now for system formation purely in the tropics given the substantial changes they made to the model at the start of the month.
It's not the same as the feature that the ECMWF, among other models, is showing for down the line. I think most of the discussion on that is over in the Storm Forum, though.